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Diplomarbeit 2004 (DA04): Arbeits-Archiv
 
DA Khn 04/3 - Blackout risks in the G10-countries: Qualitative risk analysis for endangerment of the electricity supply
Studierende: Boris Boesch, boescbor
  Johannes Geissler, geissjoh

Betreuer: Heinrich Kuhn, kuhn

Management Summary English

In recent history we have seen an increase in power outages in different parts of the globe, often resulting in damages. Although the consequences for the Insurance companies have been limited, it is a concern for the Insurance industry prompting the necessity to better understand the situation and the possible developments.

Our main task was to conduct a risk analysis for SwissRe about the possibilities of blackouts in G10 countries and to judge each country in its progress towards minimizing blackouts in future. We used the Internet, technical literature and interviewed high profile managers in the electricity industry to fulfill our assignment.

Together with SwissRe, we set the five most important indicators for power outages and then went on to research each country based on these indicators. Resulting from that research we created our analysis and judgment per country. A short summary supplies our personal opinion on the risks of blackouts in G10 nations. We finally compared the member countries of G10 with each other und were able to stress our point of view in a rating.

With the different analysis we conducted, we came to the conclusion that the risk of a blackout varies strongly from country to country. The possibility of a power failure is especially high in North America. Japan and Europe, with exception of Italy, can be considered as relative dependable producers of electrical power. Because of the global increase in demand, we see an improvement in reliability of power supply as a key factor.

This thesis can now be used by SwissRe to help them assess this risk for their business environment.

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